Why recovery is harder than the loss
Percentages are not symmetrical, because a loss shrinks the base that the recovery has to grow. Lose 50% and you have half the money left — doubling it is the only way back.
break-even price = entry × (1 + fee) ÷ (1 − fee)
| If you are down | You need a gain of |
|---|---|
| 10% | 11.1% |
| 20% | 25.0% |
| 33% | 49.3% |
| 50% | 100% |
| 70% | 233% |
| 90% | 900% |
Below about 30% the maths is forgiving. Past 50% it stops being a drawdown and becomes a project.
A worked example
You bought 0.4 coins at $50,000 and the price is now $35,000, with a 0.1% fee per trade:
| What you paid | $20,020.00 |
|---|---|
| Worth now | $14,000.00 |
| Down from entry | −30.00% |
| Break-even price | $50,100.10 |
| Gain needed | 43.14% |
A 30% fall requires a 43% rise to undo. Fees push break-even slightly above your original entry, which is why the two numbers never quite match.
Three ways out, and what each costs
- Wait. Costs nothing directly, but ties up capital that could be working elsewhere. The real question is whether this position is the best use of that money today, not whether it will eventually recover.
- Average down. Lowers the price you need, but raises the money at risk. The average price calculator shows exactly how far each extra buy moves your entry.
- Cut and redeploy. Realises the loss but frees the capital. Mathematically neutral — a 43% gain is a 43% gain wherever you earn it — yet it is the option people find hardest.
The sunk cost trap
Holding because of what you paid is a decision made on information that no longer exists. The market does not know your entry price and will not route around it. The only useful question is where you would put the money if you were starting today with cash in hand.
Common questions
How do I calculate my break-even price in crypto?
Take your entry price and adjust it upward for the fees paid on both the buy and the sell. That adjusted price is where a sale returns exactly what you put in.
Why does a 50% loss need a 100% gain?
Because the gain is calculated on the smaller amount left after the loss. Half of your money must double to return to the original figure.
Should I average down to reach break-even faster?
It lowers the required gain but increases the money exposed to one position. It works when the decline is temporary and compounds the damage when it is not.
Do fees change my break-even price much?
At 0.1% per side, break-even sits about 0.2% above your entry — negligible on one trade, meaningful across dozens.
Does this account for tax?
No. It shows the price that returns your capital before any tax on the disposal.